两级供应链中的利益分配

供应链中的利益分配问题是理论界和企业界都十分关注的问题,它关系到供应链联盟的稳定性,关系到企业之间利润分配的公平性。本文介绍了合作对策的一些基本概念;Shapley值求解合作对策的基本原理和公式,以及应用Shapley值方法求解两级供应链中的利益分配问题。     

考虑线路安排的物流配送方案模型及其算法研究

在分析车辆路径问题现有启发式算法的基础上，建立了考虑线路安排的物流配送方案模型，并提出了求解该问题的一种搜索算法，实验结果表明，该算法可有效求得问题的优化解或近似优化解，且具有运算速度快、算法简便的特点。     

Bayesian life test planning for the Weibull distribution with given shape parameter

This paper describes Bayesian methods for life test planning with Type II censored data from a Weibull distribution, when the Weibull shape parameter is given. We use conjugate prior distributions and criteria based on estimating a quantile of interest of the lifetime distribution. One criterion is based on a precision factor for a credibility interval for a distribution quantile and the other is based on the length of the credibility interval. We provide simple closed form expressions for the relationship between the needed number of failures and the precision criteria. Examples are used to illustrate the results.Received: October 2002 / Revised: March 2004     

The Bell Curve in Psychological Research and Practice: Myth or Reality?

The expression “the bell curve” designs both a kind of statistical distribution and the title of a famous and controversial book by Herrnstein and Murray. The first is so attractive that the second refers to it to give more credibility to its questionable theories on intelligence. The point is that, during the 20th century, the bell curve has assumed a more and more important role in psychological research and practice and have become both a reality and a myth. In the first case (reality) we can assist to appropriate applications of a real useful statistical concept. In the second (myth) we can have two kinds of attitudes: one attitude is typical of those researchers who search for normality in all their data and variables, just as Parsifal used to search for the Holy Graal (we call this “the Parsifal attitude”); the other is typical of those researchers who give normality for granted and act as if it were a Platonic Idea (we call this “the Plato attitude”). The article discusses the role of the normal distribution in psychological research and practice and shows how it can be dangerous to treat the bell curve as a God or an Idol.     

烟草商业配送物流设计分析

根据目前烟草配送的现状和发展趋势，着重介绍和分析了烟草商业配送物流设计中件烟存贮和条烟分拣的基本方式，并对相关主要设备和系统案例进行描述。     

违约损失率问题初探

巴塞尔新资本协议强调内部评级法在风险管理和资本监管中的重要作用。内部评级法的关键在于对违约率及其相关因素的测量,其中违约概率(PD)和违约损失率(LGD)是内部评级法的核心变量。对国际上关于LGD的表现及影响因素的讨论进行了总结与分析,并重点对LGD与PD之间的关系进行了介绍。     

ON THE FIRST–ORDER EFFICIENCY AND ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATORS OBTAINED FROM DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS

Abstract. In this paper we study the first–order efficiency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from dependent observations. Our conditions are weaker than usual, in that we do not require convergences in probability to be uniform or third–order derivatives to exist.
The paper builds on Witting and Nolle's result concerning the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from independent and identically distributed observations, and on a martingale theorem by McLeish.     

团队合作中的利益分配机制及其调整过程探讨

本文主要探讨团队合作这种新兴工作机制的利益分配机制,首先提出了两种方法:其一,权的最小平方法,建立在专家评分基础之上,具有一定的主观性;其二,在合作博弈框架之上运用Shapley定理确定分配方案,具有较好的客观性、公正性。本文后一部分主要讨论在使用Shapley定理确定分配方案之后的团队博弈,即一旦团队由合作博弈进入非合作博弈后,团队利益分配是如何进行调整的,以及调整过程中博弈双方的策略变化和这种调整产生的内在机理。     

基于仿真技术的物流中心站台数确定方法研究

通过建立描述站台数量的模型,利用排队论理论得到了最优站台数的解法,同时利用Arena仿真软件对这一问题进行仿真。应用Arena仿真克服了理论建模方法的不足,为物流中心最优站台数问题提供了一种较为理想的解决方法。     

第三方物流管理系统设计

物流管理软件在我国市场具有巨大的应用前景。由于我国企业的物流支出成本过高、管理水平落后，所以物流服务业市场潜力很大。物流管理软件的出现成为物流业发展的必然。然而，现在出现的各种物流管理软件很多存在自身的弊端和局限性。因此能设计出一个功能比较完备且经济、实用的物流管理系统迫在眉睫。本文主要对第三方物流管理系统的各种功能进行了论述和说明。